Forever Naval Warfare, Everywhere, All The Time

The Drone Revolution Means the End of Global Shipping At Scale

The Drone Revolution, which started off in Ukraine in land war, has moved to Sea. The Iranians through the Houthis have closed the Red Sea to all traffic they don’t like. Neither the Biden nor Trump Administration has an answer to the drones and low cost missiles that can hit ships near the Suez Canal and far off the Bab al Mandab Strait. Unless a costly ground invasion that would generate hundreds of thousands of casualties takes place, Iran controls the Red Sea.

Just as thoroughly, Iran controls the Straits of Hormuz. Nothing can move in or out, without their say so. They can use drones and missiles to hit tanker after tanker, and the US cannot stop them. No amount of bombing the US has done has stopped Iran from closing the Strait. Iran can and has sent missiles into Jordan, as well as Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and reportedly Saudi Arabia again in retaliation for US missile strikes.

The US CAN put a blockade on Iranian oil, but probably won’t because the oil price would go up too much. Iran knows this, so they will keep the Straits closed to all but their traffic. Which the US, they are betting, will HAVE to let through for Trump’s political reasons. Meanwhile, there are multiple and credible reports of various Iranian assassination attempts against Trump.

Meanwhile Khamenei Junior is vowing to kill Trump:

Link here

That would, of course, be dear old dad, whom Mojtaba then addresses: “We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers. This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done.” And: “The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave.”

Here again, drones are the game changer and may God Forbid allow the Iranians to kill Trump. Certainly various “emergency” repairs have been made by Secret Service Request to the White House, and perimeter fences have been moved way back. Obviously the fear is a wave of drones, attacking the White House, followed on by various attackers. Absent the drones, this was almost what happened during Trump’s first term when Anti-Fa came dangerously close to pulling him out of the White House and lynching him.

What drones do is allow smaller, weaker states to wreak havoc on larger, more powerful ones. Enabled also by the falling populations of natives and thus the value of each man and the political cost of heavy casualties. Stuff the US could afford in WWII, is not possible now. The nation could not take the casualties of Peleliu or Iwo Jima or Okinawa. The fallout would be too great. Meanwhile weaker nations can pummel with impunity stronger ones:

Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. But it has sunk 76 Russian tankers. Hit refineries way out in Siberia. Hit refineries and port facilities in St. Petersburg. And also hit Moscow, hard.

So far, Russia has not done much, but it also has drones and missiles. It can without much risk hit refineries, port facilities, and more in Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, France, and even the UK and Norway. It can start sinking ships in the Baltic with drones and missiles. What will the NATO forces do, help Ukraine hit more Russian refineries and ships? Will the US drop everything in Iran and rush to help the NATO countries that despise Trump and the US? Russia is now desperately short of fuel, the lights are out mostly in Crimea, and rationing is across the country. Why not start sinking ships with missiles and drones? No people at risk, and the pain can be felt among its enemies?

Meanwhile, Naval Warfare is spinning across the globe:

The US Navy and other forces are still blowing up drug boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. Democrats are still threatening War Crimes tribunals for not only Trump but ordinary sailors. Ukraine is hitting Russia hard, and Russia is likely to target Ukraine’s sponsors in retaliation. Including shipping which are slow moving, easy targets that are not defended. The US continues to bomb Iran to no effect seen, and Iran continues to blow holes in ships that try and leave the Persian Gulf, and hit various countries around it.

What this does is move everything up the escalation ladder, and now not even countries but Cartels can play with drones. In Mexico some of the more advanced fiber optic cable (not jammable) drones have been found in Cartel camps, and it quite logical that Cartels will start sinking US shipping in retaliation for their cargo getting blown up. The US cannot protect, but the Cartels can sink, all sorts of shipping, particularly that coming into the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, into Houston, and into Charleston. They can also hit oil drilling rigs, far out to sea, and even start blowing up skyscrapers in any place they want. Cartels are everywhere in every city in the US. Even the most small and out of the way place.

And it is not just Cartels. Other organizations and smaller states with grudges can start to shut down Global Shipping. Which will have profound consequences.

First, it threatens China which probably does not realize it because bad news never flows up to the Supreme Leader. China is reliant mostly on exports, internal consumption is very low and has a hard cap as people are poor and exploited. Wages are tiny, and shrinking not growing under Xi’s export only mania. Past consumption and savings like Real Estate were scams designed by the State to take people’s life savings for the Party. Without the export market, the whole Belt-and-Road initiative starts to collapse and China is left with bad loans that never repay. Suppose they simply take possession of a port in Malaysia? [Which has its own risks given that country’s history.] The trade will simply not happen because it is easier for small states and non state actors to sink shipping than it is for major powers even China to keep the ships afloat.

And that whole Globalization foundation relies on cheap and SCALED shipping. Not a few one-offs, but vast cargo ships pushing goods in and out of ports:

Rottderdam below

Shanghai here

Port of Los Angeles below

Technology can sometimes have very rapid and devastating effects on political arrangements. The printing press (easy how to military manuals) and the Arquebus ended the Mounted Knight and Manorial System in favor of mass peasant levies that were cheaper and crushed knights. The AK-47, being so cheap to make, easy to maintain, and effective in close quarters combat, made even African child soldiers effective. Making Revolutionary movements throughout the Third World so powerful, as the AK-47 made even an illiterate peasant the firepower equal of a WWII American soldier.

Now we have the same thing with Drones. And cheap missiles. They can be used to sink ships from far away, in dug out caves and cliff holes and deep in mountains, where US airpower cannot reach. Even Ukraine and Russia, both flat in the front lines, are using them to great effect. It is just fantasy not reality to think that “somehow” this technology, a weapon of war, will just stay in Iran, Ukraine, and Russia. It is evidently not, and is going to expand.

Ironically, the US is better situated than either China or the Muslim conquered EU. We have enough resources to make our stuff, and a large enough population to support both a large manufacturing sector with a large consumer market, and sufficient energy and food supplies also. China imports a lot of its food, and hostile neighbors are sure to make note of how easy it is with drones to sink a tanker or a grain cargo ship.

Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.